New Japan Cup 2018 Predictions
The 14th ever New Japan Cup is taking place in March and the single-elimination tournament bracket was just released. The winner will get a title shot for either Kazuchika Okada's IWGP Heavyweight Championship, Minoru Suzuki's Intercontinental Championship, Jay White's US Championship, and Hirooki Goto's NEVER Openweight Championship. Last year's winner was Katsuyori Shibata and his ensuing title match with Okada tragically ended his career (although it was an incredible match). The other winners in chronological order: Hiroshi Tanahashi, Giant Bernard (now known as Matt Bloom), Yuji Nagata, Hiroshi Tanahashi, Hirooki Goto, Hirooki Goto, Yuji Nagata, Hirooki Goto, Kazuchika Okada, Shinsuke Nakamura, Kota Ibushi, and Tetsuya Naito.
This year's field of 16 competitors includes a good variety of stars: the returning Hiroshi Tanahashi, the most recent challenger to Okada's title, tag team wrestlers such as Davey Boy Smith Jr. and Lance Archer, and Taichi, the newest heavyweight. A number of them have shots at winning but of course, only one can actually win. Let's get started.
First Round:
YOSHI-HASHI vs. Kota Ibushi
As one half of the Golden Lovers, Ibushi is one of the hottest wrestlers in the world right now. So while HASHI needs the win here to rebound from his loss to Tetsuya Naito in Osaka, Ibushi can't afford to lose in the first round of this tournament. Pick: Kota Ibushi
Tetsuya Naito vs. Zack Sabre Jr.
This is a potential dream match. You have the relaxed Naito going against the technical wizard in ZSJ. Naito is coming off the aforementioned win against HASHI and will face Taichi at the anniversary show. ZSJ is making his first appearance for NJPW in 2018 and needs to start the year strong. Naito can afford to take the loss here but a win for Sabre here potentially sets him up for bigger matches (and possibly a rematch with Naito) down the line. Pick: Zack Sabre Jr.
Toru Yano vs. Davey Boy Smith Jr.
Despite being a comedy character, Yano has the potential to beat anybody on any given night (usually thanks to a variety of shenanigans). That's why he's the favorite here. Smith has done virtually nothing since he and Lance Archer lost the tag titles to EVIL & SANADA and could use a win, but I don't think that will happen. Pick: Toru Yano
SANADA vs. Chuckie T
This is an interesting one. Chuckie T is only here because his tag partner Beretta is injured. SANADA, on the other hand, is coming off of a loss to Kazuchika Okada at New Beginning. While replacements tend to win their matches (an unspoken wrestling rule), SANADA is the smart choice here. With his tag partner currently out of action thanks to a broken orbital bone, SANADA needs some singles momentum to keep things going. Pick: SANADA
Michael Elgin vs. Tomohiro Ishii
Ever since the Elgin trainee scandal, Big Mike has not been featured in any big New Japan angles. He should have a good, hard-hitting match with Ishii here and a win would not be surprising. Still, I'm going to go with Ishii, who made it to the semifinals of last year's New Japan Cup before losing to eventual winner Katsuyori Shibata. Pick: Tomohiro Ishii
Yujiro Takahashi vs. Juice Robinson
Takahashi is one of the least consequential wrestlers in NJPW and rarely wins big matches. Robinson, on the other hand, is one of the promotion's brightest up-and-coming stars. He needs the win here to further cement his status as a man to watch. Pick: Juice Robinson
Hiroshi Tanahashi vs. Taichi
Tanahashi is returning to New Japan after weeks on the shelf. The man who put him there: Suzuki-gun leader Minoru Suzuki, who destroyed Tana's leg and took his IWGP Intercontinental Championship. This New Japan Cup is a story of redemption for Tana and he should use the title opportunity afforded to the winner against Suzuki. And what better way to start that journey than by facing Suzuki-gun member Taichi. Speaking of Taichi, the former IWGP Jr. Heavyweight Tag Team Champion is the newest member of the Heavyweight division and will be making his Heavyweight debut against Naito at the anniversary show. Under normal circumstances, Taichi would be the smart pick here. Since 2016, Tanahashi has a habit of losing to bright young stars to help put them over. Stars like Kenny Omega, SANADA, EVIL, and ZSJ have all beaten Tana and seen their stock rise. However, Tana's redemption story trumps that narrative and besides, it doesn't seem Gedo is interested in giving Taichi a super push. Pick: Hiroshi Tanahashi
Bad Luck Fale vs. Lance Archer
Under normal circumstances, Fale, 1/3 of the current NEVER Six Man Tag champs, would be the easy choice here. The Underboss is heavily protected by Gedo and does especially well in tournaments. He's always a lock to get double-digit points in the G1 and made it to the finals of last year's New Japan Cup. Archer meanwhile, has been cooling his heels since he and Archer dropped the tag straps and is not really known as a singles competitor. However, once again, Tana's redemption story trumps all. I see Archer winning here so Tana can face another Suzuki-gun member on his quest to face Suzuki again. Pick: Lance Archer
Quarterfinals:
Kota Ibushi vs. Zack Sabre Jr.
This is the match we all thought would take place in the finals of the Cruiserweight Classic. Instead, it should be a quarterfinal match here. As I said before, ZSJ needs a good showing in the New Japan Cup to be seen as a real threat for the rest of 2018. I'm going to make a bold prediction here: by the end of 2019, we will see ZSJ have at least one match for the IWGP Heavyweight title. Ibushi is now a tag team wrestler so he doesn't need to do much in a singles competition. That being said, he and Omega should be the favorites for this year's World Tag League. Pick: Zack Sabre Jr.
Toru Yano vs. SANADA
Yano might be able to beat Archer but I highly doubt he'll beat SANADA. Although both of these wrestlers are tag wrestlers, EVIL's injury makes SANADA a singles wrestler for the foreseeable future. Pick: SANADA
Tomohiro Ishii vs. Juice Robinson
Even though Ishii made it to the semifinals of last year's New Japan Cup, he's not really known as a great tournament wrestler. Robinson meanwhile, has a much better tournament history. At last year's New Japan Cup he made it to the second round and in the 2017 G1 Climax he beat United States Champion Kenny Omega. Look for the former NXT star to get the win here. Pick: Juice Robinson
Hiroshi Tanahashi vs. Lance Archer
Archer has pretty much zero chance of winning this match. Tana only loses to rising stars, not established tag team wrestlers. Besides, the whole redemptive arc is still at play here. Pick: Hiroshi Tanahashi
Semifinals:
Zack Sabre Jr. vs. SANADA
Quick recap here: ZSJ needs a good showing in the New Japan Cup to potentially get big matches and title matches in 2018. SANADA is a tag team wrestler. Also, ZSJ is a member of Suzuki-gun and that fits rather nicely into Tana's redemption story. Pick: Zack Sabre Jr.
Hiroshi Tanahashi vs. Juice Robinson
At some point, I think Juice will beat Tana, as that will go a long way in legitimizing the former CJ Parker. But this is not that point. That being said, Juice is a dark horse to win it all. He previously said that if he won the Cup he would challenge Jay White. Of course, Robinson doesn't need to win the Cup to face White for the title, so he'll probably lose here. Pick: Hiroshi Tanahashi
Finals:
Zack Sabre Jr. vs. Hiroshi Tanahashi
When I first saw the brackets, my immediate pick was Sabre. And while he could win the tournament, Tana is the overwhelming favorite. Minoru Suzuki put Hiroshi Tanahashi on the shelf and took his Intercontinental Championship, a title he had held since Dominion in June. To get revenge on Suzuki, Tanahashi will need to win the New Japan Cup. To do that, he will have to go through three wrestlers allied with Suzuki: Taichi, Lance Archer, and Zack Sabre Jr. This whole tournament is about Tana's quest to redeem himself. Gedo, New Japan's booker, loves redemption stories in tournaments. We saw that with KUSHIDA at last year's Best of the Juniors and Tetsuya Naito in last year's G1 Climax. Pick: Hiroshi Tanahashi
Thanks for reading everyone.
This year's field of 16 competitors includes a good variety of stars: the returning Hiroshi Tanahashi, the most recent challenger to Okada's title, tag team wrestlers such as Davey Boy Smith Jr. and Lance Archer, and Taichi, the newest heavyweight. A number of them have shots at winning but of course, only one can actually win. Let's get started.
First Round:
YOSHI-HASHI vs. Kota Ibushi
As one half of the Golden Lovers, Ibushi is one of the hottest wrestlers in the world right now. So while HASHI needs the win here to rebound from his loss to Tetsuya Naito in Osaka, Ibushi can't afford to lose in the first round of this tournament. Pick: Kota Ibushi
Tetsuya Naito vs. Zack Sabre Jr.
This is a potential dream match. You have the relaxed Naito going against the technical wizard in ZSJ. Naito is coming off the aforementioned win against HASHI and will face Taichi at the anniversary show. ZSJ is making his first appearance for NJPW in 2018 and needs to start the year strong. Naito can afford to take the loss here but a win for Sabre here potentially sets him up for bigger matches (and possibly a rematch with Naito) down the line. Pick: Zack Sabre Jr.
Toru Yano vs. Davey Boy Smith Jr.
Despite being a comedy character, Yano has the potential to beat anybody on any given night (usually thanks to a variety of shenanigans). That's why he's the favorite here. Smith has done virtually nothing since he and Lance Archer lost the tag titles to EVIL & SANADA and could use a win, but I don't think that will happen. Pick: Toru Yano
SANADA vs. Chuckie T
This is an interesting one. Chuckie T is only here because his tag partner Beretta is injured. SANADA, on the other hand, is coming off of a loss to Kazuchika Okada at New Beginning. While replacements tend to win their matches (an unspoken wrestling rule), SANADA is the smart choice here. With his tag partner currently out of action thanks to a broken orbital bone, SANADA needs some singles momentum to keep things going. Pick: SANADA
Michael Elgin vs. Tomohiro Ishii
Ever since the Elgin trainee scandal, Big Mike has not been featured in any big New Japan angles. He should have a good, hard-hitting match with Ishii here and a win would not be surprising. Still, I'm going to go with Ishii, who made it to the semifinals of last year's New Japan Cup before losing to eventual winner Katsuyori Shibata. Pick: Tomohiro Ishii
Yujiro Takahashi vs. Juice Robinson
Takahashi is one of the least consequential wrestlers in NJPW and rarely wins big matches. Robinson, on the other hand, is one of the promotion's brightest up-and-coming stars. He needs the win here to further cement his status as a man to watch. Pick: Juice Robinson
Hiroshi Tanahashi vs. Taichi
Tanahashi is returning to New Japan after weeks on the shelf. The man who put him there: Suzuki-gun leader Minoru Suzuki, who destroyed Tana's leg and took his IWGP Intercontinental Championship. This New Japan Cup is a story of redemption for Tana and he should use the title opportunity afforded to the winner against Suzuki. And what better way to start that journey than by facing Suzuki-gun member Taichi. Speaking of Taichi, the former IWGP Jr. Heavyweight Tag Team Champion is the newest member of the Heavyweight division and will be making his Heavyweight debut against Naito at the anniversary show. Under normal circumstances, Taichi would be the smart pick here. Since 2016, Tanahashi has a habit of losing to bright young stars to help put them over. Stars like Kenny Omega, SANADA, EVIL, and ZSJ have all beaten Tana and seen their stock rise. However, Tana's redemption story trumps that narrative and besides, it doesn't seem Gedo is interested in giving Taichi a super push. Pick: Hiroshi Tanahashi
Bad Luck Fale vs. Lance Archer
Under normal circumstances, Fale, 1/3 of the current NEVER Six Man Tag champs, would be the easy choice here. The Underboss is heavily protected by Gedo and does especially well in tournaments. He's always a lock to get double-digit points in the G1 and made it to the finals of last year's New Japan Cup. Archer meanwhile, has been cooling his heels since he and Archer dropped the tag straps and is not really known as a singles competitor. However, once again, Tana's redemption story trumps all. I see Archer winning here so Tana can face another Suzuki-gun member on his quest to face Suzuki again. Pick: Lance Archer
Quarterfinals:
Kota Ibushi vs. Zack Sabre Jr.
This is the match we all thought would take place in the finals of the Cruiserweight Classic. Instead, it should be a quarterfinal match here. As I said before, ZSJ needs a good showing in the New Japan Cup to be seen as a real threat for the rest of 2018. I'm going to make a bold prediction here: by the end of 2019, we will see ZSJ have at least one match for the IWGP Heavyweight title. Ibushi is now a tag team wrestler so he doesn't need to do much in a singles competition. That being said, he and Omega should be the favorites for this year's World Tag League. Pick: Zack Sabre Jr.
Toru Yano vs. SANADA
Yano might be able to beat Archer but I highly doubt he'll beat SANADA. Although both of these wrestlers are tag wrestlers, EVIL's injury makes SANADA a singles wrestler for the foreseeable future. Pick: SANADA
Tomohiro Ishii vs. Juice Robinson
Even though Ishii made it to the semifinals of last year's New Japan Cup, he's not really known as a great tournament wrestler. Robinson meanwhile, has a much better tournament history. At last year's New Japan Cup he made it to the second round and in the 2017 G1 Climax he beat United States Champion Kenny Omega. Look for the former NXT star to get the win here. Pick: Juice Robinson
Hiroshi Tanahashi vs. Lance Archer
Archer has pretty much zero chance of winning this match. Tana only loses to rising stars, not established tag team wrestlers. Besides, the whole redemptive arc is still at play here. Pick: Hiroshi Tanahashi
Semifinals:
Zack Sabre Jr. vs. SANADA
Quick recap here: ZSJ needs a good showing in the New Japan Cup to potentially get big matches and title matches in 2018. SANADA is a tag team wrestler. Also, ZSJ is a member of Suzuki-gun and that fits rather nicely into Tana's redemption story. Pick: Zack Sabre Jr.
Hiroshi Tanahashi vs. Juice Robinson
At some point, I think Juice will beat Tana, as that will go a long way in legitimizing the former CJ Parker. But this is not that point. That being said, Juice is a dark horse to win it all. He previously said that if he won the Cup he would challenge Jay White. Of course, Robinson doesn't need to win the Cup to face White for the title, so he'll probably lose here. Pick: Hiroshi Tanahashi
Finals:
Zack Sabre Jr. vs. Hiroshi Tanahashi
When I first saw the brackets, my immediate pick was Sabre. And while he could win the tournament, Tana is the overwhelming favorite. Minoru Suzuki put Hiroshi Tanahashi on the shelf and took his Intercontinental Championship, a title he had held since Dominion in June. To get revenge on Suzuki, Tanahashi will need to win the New Japan Cup. To do that, he will have to go through three wrestlers allied with Suzuki: Taichi, Lance Archer, and Zack Sabre Jr. This whole tournament is about Tana's quest to redeem himself. Gedo, New Japan's booker, loves redemption stories in tournaments. We saw that with KUSHIDA at last year's Best of the Juniors and Tetsuya Naito in last year's G1 Climax. Pick: Hiroshi Tanahashi
Thanks for reading everyone.
Comments
Post a Comment